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October 27, 2025

Foreign Capital Continues to Flow into MSN During Q4 ETF Rebalancing

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    According to SSI Research, during the Q4/2025 portfolio rebalancing period, Masan Group (HOSE: MSN) is projected to be among the Top 3 most heavily bought stocks by exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and will also enter the Top 10 constituents of the STOXX Vietnam Total Market Liquid Index, one of the key benchmarks tracked by multiple international funds.

    The inclusion of MSN in global indices and investment portfolios reflects growing foreign investor confidence in Masan’s financial strength, market capitalization, and long-term growth outlook. As Vietnam continues to attract international capital amid market-upgrade expectations, companies with transparent operations, large scale, and sustainable profitability like Masan are seen as prime candidates for foreign fund portfolios.

    Strong Appeal from a Stable Business Platform

    In the first nine months of 2025, Masan is estimated to have achieved 90% of its full-year base profit target, reflecting better-than-expected operational efficiency. This performance was driven by consistent growth across core business segments, especially in consumer and retail.

    In the retail segment, WinCommerce (WCM) - operator of the WinMart/WiN/WinMart+ chain - recorded revenue exceeding VND 10,000 billion in Q3/2025, its highest quarterly figure since inception. As of the end of September, WCM had opened 464 new stores, nearly 75% of which were WinMart+ outlets in rural areas. The Central region contributed 227 stores (50% of total new openings), underscoring WCM’s strategic expansion focus. Overall, all stores opened since the beginning of the year have generated positive profit margins.

    MSN 4.1.jpg

    In August, Masan MEATLife (MML) achieved revenue of VND 999 billion (+11.1% YoY), while net profit rose 60.5% to VND 35 billion, reflecting a growing consumer shift toward branded, traceable food products.

    Meanwhile, Masan High-Tech Materials (UPCOM: MSR) benefited from the rebound in tungsten prices, while Phuc Long and Masan Consumer continued to drive sales growth, optimize operations, and enhance customer experience. Through its vertically integrated model spanning production - distribution - retail, Masan maintains strong cost control, supply chain efficiency, and sustainable margins - key attributes that make MSN particularly attractive to long-term institutional investors.

    Support from Favorable Macro Conditions and Market Upgrade

    After years of meeting global requirements for transparency, liquidity, and foreign investor accessibility, Vietnam was officially upgraded by FTSE Russell from “Frontier Market” to “Emerging Market” status on October 8, 2025. The upgrade will take effect from the September 2026 classification cycle, following a review in March 2026.

    This marks a milestone for Vietnam’s capital market, opening the door to billions of USD in potential inflows from ETFs, passive funds, and global institutional investors. SSI Research estimates that ETF inflows alone could reach around USD 1 billion during UPCOMing rebalancing periods. However, in the short term, total inflows will depend on global economic conditions and emerging-market risk sentiment.

    Against this backdrop, large-cap, fundamentally strong, and highly liquid stocks are expected to attract early foreign inflows - particularly Masan (HOSE: MSN). With a market capitalization of over VND 133 trillion (~USD 5 billion), foreign ownership exceeding 70%, and an integrated consumer-retail ecosystem, Masan stands out as a leading candidate for global indices once Vietnam’s upgrade becomes effective. SSI Research projects that MSN could attract roughly USD 98 million in foreign capital during the initial phase of portfolio restructuring by international funds.

    Additionally, Vietnam’s domestic consumption stimulus policies, including a VAT reduction to 8% for essential goods (effective until the end of 2026), are boosting consumer spending and retail sales, laying a solid foundation for continued growth among consumer and retail companies.

    According to Bao Viet Securities (BVSC), MSN remains rated OUTPERFORM, with a target price of VND 106,000 per share. BVSC notes that Masan possesses a uniquely integrated value chain in Vietnam - linking production, food processing, modern distribution, and consumption - creating strong synergies across WinCommerce, Masan MEATLife, Masan High-Tech Materials, and Phuc Long.

    This integration not only enables Masan to sustain profit growth but also enhances its appeal to international investors, especially as global capital increasingly shifts toward companies with strong domestic demand fundamentals and stable profitability.

    MSN 4.2.jpg

    While the outlook remains positive, experts also highlight several short-term challenges facing consumer and retail businesses, including Masan. These include input cost pressures, intensified competition in modern retail, and global economic fluctuations that may affect domestic consumption. In addition, ongoing digital transformation and governance standardization efforts to meet international investor requirements will require the company to maintain strict financial discipline and operational efficiency.

    Nevertheless, analysts believe that with its large market capitalization, robust financial structure, and integrated ecosystem, Masan is well positioned to adapt effectively, mitigate risks, and sustain steady growth momentum in the years ahead.

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