Market upgrade and potential foreign capital inflows
After years of preparation, Vietnam has officially been upgraded by FTSE Russell from a frontier market to a secondary emerging market, as announced on October 8, 2025 (Vietnam time). The reclassification is expected to take effect from September 2026, following a review in March 2026.
This marks a significant milestone, opening opportunities to attract billions of U.S. dollars in inflows from ETFs, passive funds, and active international investors. According to SSI Research, total ETF inflows to Vietnam could reach up to USD 1 billion across upcoming portfolio rebalancing periods. However, in the short term, the pace of capital flows will depend on global macroeconomic conditions and investor sentiment toward emerging markets.
In this context, stocks with strong fundamentals and high liquidity, such as Masan (HOSE: MSN), are expected to benefit directly. With a market capitalization of over VND 121 trillion (~USD 4.5 billion), foreign ownership exceeding 70%, and an integrated consumer-retail ecosystem, MSN is viewed as a prominent candidate for inclusion in global indices.
SSI Research projects that MSN shares could attract approximately USD 98 million in foreign inflows during the early post-upgrade period.
A robust consumer-retail ecosystem, tracking ahead of profit targets
What sets MSN apart and sustains long-term investor confidence is its business model closely tied to essential consumer demand-a structurally resilient growth area in Vietnam. MSN currently operates an integrated consumer-retail ecosystem spanning from production to distribution, including:
Masan Consumer (UPCOM: MCH)
WinCommerce (WCM)
Masan MEATLife (UPCOM: MML)
Phuc Long Heritage (PLH)
Among these, WCM is the leader in modern retail with over 4,200 stores nationwide, providing a competitive advantage in distributing products from MCH and MML.
According to company data, in the first nine months of 2025, Masan (HOSE: MSN) achieved over 90% of its 2025 base-case profit plan (NPAT Pre-MI). This result indicates that Masan is on track, with room to accelerate in **Q4-the peak consumption season-**and potentially exceed its full-year targets.
A major growth driver is WinCommerce (WCM), operating over 4,200 stores nationwide, with 75% of new openings in rural areas. In the first eight months of 2025, WCM recorded revenue of more than VND 25 trillion (+16.1% YoY); in August alone, revenue reached VND 3.57 trillion (+24.2%), reflecting strong domestic consumption and the efficiency of the modern retail model.
Masan MEATLife (MML), a member of the Masan ecosystem, also maintained solid growth following its restructuring. In August 2025, MML sold 14,007 tons of meat products (+12.9%), generated VND 999 billion in revenue (+11.1%), and achieved net profit growth of 60.5% to VND 35 billion. Both EBIT and EBITDA improved, underscoring enhanced operational efficiency and stronger margins. This highlights a growing consumer shift toward branded, safe, and traceable meat products.
Additionally, Masan High-Tech Materials (MHT) benefited from a rebound in tungsten prices, while Phuc Long continued to expand sales and improve customer experience. Masan Consumer (MCH) is expected to see strong recovery from 2026, as the FMCG market stabilizes.
Strengthening position in the post-upgrade phase
These strong business results not only reinforce MSN’s leadership position in Vietnam’s consumer-retail sector but also strengthen its appeal to both domestic and international investors.
On the stock market, MSN remains among the largest-cap stocks on HOSE, with stable liquidity in the VN30 index, ensuring its capacity to absorb large-scale capital inflows. Notably, shareholder restructuring in recent years has significantly improved MSN’s free-float ratio, making it more aligned with global index inclusion criteria. According to SSI Research, this is another key reason MSN is expected to benefit directly from post-upgrade capital inflows.
Valuation assessments from leading securities firms further reinforce investor confidence:
BVSC estimates MSN’s fair value at VND 106,000 per share.
VCBS maintains a BUY recommendation with a target price of approximately VND 109,000 per share, notably above current levels.
VCI sets a target of VND 101,000 per share, emphasizing advantages from network expansion and optimized product portfolios.
These positive assessments reflect analysts’ strong confidence in Masan’s long-term growth potential, especially as Vietnam enters the post-upgrade phase of its capital market evolution.