Market Upgrade: A Catalyst for Foreign Capital
Vietnam’s stock market stands at a pivotal juncture. Following rapid growth in capitalization and liquidity, and ongoing reforms in trading mechanisms, disclosures, and payment infrastructure, the country is edging closer to meeting FTSE requirements for an upgrade from “frontier” to “emerging market” status.
Such an upgrade would go beyond a “label change,” serving as a major catalyst for access to global capital. Inclusion in global indices such as FTSE, and eventually MSCI, would put Vietnam firmly on the radar of passive ETFs and active funds. Estimates suggest potential inflows could exceed USD 11 billion if the process unfolds smoothly. Alongside opportunities, an upgrade also raises the bar for transparency, governance, and trading standards-both a challenge and a motivation for Vietnamese enterprises to strengthen their foundations, improve competitiveness, and lower long-term funding costs.
Advantage of a Consumer-Retail Ecosystem
Masan (HOSE: MSN) illustrates how a domestic enterprise can benefit from the upgrade process. In the first half of 2025, the Group recorded consolidated revenue of more than VND 37.2 trillion and net profit of VND 2.602 trillion-nearly double year-on-year and already surpassing half of the annual plan. These results reflect synchronized improvements across the ecosystem, from modern retail and food to animal protein, FMCG, and high-tech materials.
WinCommerce (WCM) continues to be the primary growth driver. By August, the chain had opened 415 new stores-75% in rural areas, which represent more than 60% of Vietnam’s population but still have vast room for modern retail. In August alone, revenue reached VND 3.573 trillion, up 24.2% year-on-year, underscoring improving operational efficiency.
In the same month, Masan MEATLife (UPCOM: MML) also posted strong performance with sales volume of 14,007 tons, up 12.9% year-on-year. Net revenue reached VND 999 billion, up 11.1%, reflecting stable demand and increasing contribution from modern retail. Operational efficiency improved significantly, with EBIT up 42.9% to VND 50 billion, net profit rising 60.5% to VND 35 billion, and EBITDA reaching VND 90 billion, up 18% year-on-year. These results affirm MML’s sustainable recovery post-restructuring, with gains in both scale and financial efficiency.
Meanwhile, Masan Consumer (UPCOM: MCH) maintains its role as a core player in FMCG with continuous product innovation and export expansion, helping offset domestic competition pressures. Masan High-Tech Materials (HOSE: MSR), despite facing global commodity price volatility, remains a steady contributor with long-term strategic significance. This balance demonstrates that Masan is not reliant on a single business line but rather diversified across consumer, food, and high-tech materials-strengthening its foundation to meet the expectations of global investors.
Opportunities come with challenges. To capture international capital flows, Masan must maintain stable growth amid fierce competition while enhancing governance to meet increasingly stringent global investor standards. Short-term share price fluctuations may occur during index rebalancing, but over the long term, an upgrade would serve as a catalyst for reinforcing financial discipline, expanding fundraising capabilities, and deepening integration with global markets.
According to BVSC’s September 2025 report, Masan (HOSE: MSN) is rated with a positive outlook, forecasting 2025 revenue of VND 85.042 trillion (+2.2% year-on-year) and net profit attributable to shareholders of VND 3.501 trillion (+75.1% year-on-year).
BVSC issued an OUTPERFORM recommendation for MSN with a target price of VND 106,000 per share. Growth drivers are expected to come mainly from WinCommerce, Masan MEATLife, Masan High-Tech Materials, and Phúc Long, while Masan Consumer is projected to rebound from 2026 onward. In addition, external factors such as a potential market upgrade and Masan Consumer’s planned listing transfer to HOSE are viewed as catalysts that could further support MSN’s valuation in the period ahead.