Market Upgrade and Potential Foreign Capital Inflows
According to the government’s stock market development strategy to 2030, Vietnam is accelerating reforms to secure an upgrade from frontier to emerging market status. This would not only enhance the country’s global positioning but also unlock the potential to attract billions of USD from ETFs, passive funds, and active international investors.
In September 2025, the Vietnamese stock market entered a period of heightened attention from global investors as FTSE Russell prepared for its semi-annual review. After years on the watchlist, the likelihood of an upgrade from frontier to emerging status is closer than ever. In line with this, SSI Research’s latest strategy report suggests Vietnam could be officially upgraded by FTSE Russell in October 2025, potentially attracting around USD 1 billion in ETF inflows. Experience from other markets shows that stock performance often improves even before an upgrade, buoyed by expectations of stronger foreign capital inflows and improved investor sentiment.
With a market capitalization of approximately VND 90 trillion (~USD 3.4 billion), a 30-day average liquidity of USD 15.1 million, and nearly 24% foreign room available, Masan Group (MSN) emerges as a prime candidate for inclusion in global indices in the event of an upgrade. Beyond technical criteria, MSN’s attractiveness lies in its robust core business fundamentals.
A Strong Consumer-Retail Ecosystem
What differentiates MSN and sustains its long-term appeal to investors is its business model centered on essential consumer demand-the most resilient growth driver in Vietnam. With a population of nearly 100 million, total retail sales of goods and consumer services in 2024 were estimated at VND 6,391 trillion, up 9% year-on-year, offering ample room for market leaders to grow.
MSN currently owns a fully integrated consumer-retail ecosystem spanning production to distribution, including Masan Consumer (MCH), WinCommerce (WCM), Masan MEATLife (MML), and Phúc Long Heritage (PLH). WCM leads modern retail with nearly 4,200 stores, creating a significant distribution advantage for MCH and MML products.
According to the company, Q2/2025 results went beyond headline growth figures, showcasing how Masan maximizes the synergies of an integrated ecosystem spanning consumer goods, retail, food, and even high-tech materials. In the quarter, the group reported net revenue of VND 18,315 billion and post-MI net profit of VND 1,619 billion, bringing six-month profit to VND 2,602 billion-almost double year-on-year and surpassing 50% of its full-year target. This highlights the strong interplay among its core business segments.
WinCommerce continues to solidify its role as the “locomotive” of modern retail with four consecutive quarters of profitability. Q2 revenue grew 16.4%, driven by expansion of the WinMart+ format in rural areas, aligning more closely with fast-growing rural demand. Meanwhile, Masan MEATLife accelerated with VND 2,340 billion in revenue, up 30.7%, supported by a strategic focus on processed meat in line with consumer shifts toward higher-value products. In parallel, Masan High-Tech Materials capitalized on the recovery of strategic mineral prices to improve margins, further contributing to the group’s growth.
Attractive Valuation in an Upgrade Scenario
These strong business results not only reinforce MSN’s standing as a leading consumer-retail company but also provide a solid foundation for the stock to become increasingly attractive to both domestic and international investors.
On the exchange, MSN maintains its position among HOSE’s largest-cap stocks and within the VN30 index, with stable liquidity that ensures the capacity to absorb billion-dollar capital inflows. Importantly, shareholder restructuring in recent years has significantly improved free float, making the stock more compatible with global index requirements. According to SSI Research, this is one of the reasons MSN is viewed as a retail stock likely to benefit directly from capital inflows once the market is upgraded.
Brokerage valuations further strengthen analyst confidence. KBSV estimates MSN’s fair value at VND 100,000 per share under its SoTP model. VCBS recommends BUY with a target price of VND 93,208 per share, about 14% above current market levels, while VCI sets a target of VND 101,000 per share, highlighting advantages from network expansion and product portfolio optimization.
As Vietnam moves closer to its market upgrade milestone, international institutional investors are expected to prioritize stocks that meet both technical requirements and demonstrate strong growth fundamentals. With its essential consumer platform, improving financial performance, and ample foreign ownership room, Masan Group (MSN) is emerging as a potential “gateway” for foreign capital to deepen its presence in the Vietnamese market.