MBS Research, in its latest report, highlighted that the modern retail sector will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of stricter market regulations. Specifically, the Government is taking strong measures to bring the retail market under tighter oversight: cracking down on serious violations such as the VND 500 billion counterfeit milk ring, tightening restrictions on misleading advertising, and requiring businesses with annual revenue over VND 1 billion to adopt e-invoicing. These steps both enhance transparency and limit smuggling and low-quality goods.
Of note, Hanoi has set a target to eliminate all informal and temporary markets by 2025, an effort that failed in the past due to consumer demand for “cheap, quick, convenient” shopping. Now, however, modern retail-offering clean food, reasonable prices, transparent sourcing, and integrated online channels-is strong enough to replace them. This policy paves the way for a “level playing field” for supermarkets, convenience stores, and e-commerce platforms.
In this landscape, domestic consumer and retail companies have a clear advantage. Analysts highly value names such as Mobile World (MWG), Vinamilk (VNM), Sabeco (SAB), and particularly Masan Group (MSN), thanks to their growth momentum and attractive valuations.
Growth Platform from Modern Retail and Consumer Goods
With a population of 100 million and a rapidly expanding middle class, Masan Group (HOSE: MSN) is regarded by international financial institutions and securities companies as the leading consumer-retail representative in Vietnam. Growth momentum comes from the combination of WinCommerce-the operator of WinMart supermarkets and WinMart+/WiN stores, Vietnam’s largest retail network by coverage-Masan Consumer (UPCOM: MCH), a leading FMCG company, and Masan MEATLife (UPCOM: MML), a pioneer in branded meat.
In the first eight months, WinCommerce opened 415 new stores, all of which were profitable, reaffirming the efficiency and appeal of the modern retail model, especially in rural areas. Nearly 300 of these stores (about 75%) are located in rural communities, while Central Vietnam accounted for 194 stores, representing nearly 50% of the expansion.
MEATDeli’s chilled pork-produced with European technology-remains a top choice for consumers thanks to its superior quality. Sourced from healthy pigs that meet the “3 No’s” standard (no disease, no lean-meat additives or growth stimulants, no antibiotic residues), MEATDeli products undergo a three-step veterinary inspection process and come with QR code traceability. This reflects a growing consumer preference for high-quality, safe, and transparent products.
Meanwhile, Masan Consumer is undergoing a short-term adjustment period due to distribution restructuring and new invoicing requirements. The company targets VND 32 trillion in revenue for 2025 (+5% YoY) and expects a strong recovery from 2026 as distribution stabilizes and new products gain wider market penetration.
According to MBS, Masan’s net profit is forecast to grow 44% in 2025 and 40% in 2026, supported by momentum in retail and consumer goods. At the same time, debt restructuring and lower interest expenses are expected to significantly improve the net debt/EBITDA ratio, strengthening financial foundations.
Foreign Capital Seeking Sustainable Growth Stories
As foreign investors continue to seek “the Vietnam growth story,” Masan is viewed as a leading consumer play. With its integrated retail-consumer ecosystem, the Group not only benefits directly from the shift toward modern retail but also captures rising consumer demand for quality-of-life upgrades as incomes grow.
WinCommerce serves as a daily touchpoint for millions of households and a key distribution channel for MCH and MML products. This creates a closed growth loop of production - distribution - consumption, helping Masan build a differentiated competitive advantage.
Against this backdrop, with its recent positive results, many experts believe that as Vietnam reaches USD 5,000 GDP per capita, Masan has the potential to become a leading consumer stock and a strategic destination for international investors seeking exposure to Vietnam’s 100-million population and sustainable consumption growth.